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Vice President JD Vance’s commanding lead in the 2028 Republican presidential primary race is eroding, according to a new University of New Hampshire survey released this week. The poll shows Vance holding 36 percent support among likely GOP primary voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has climbed to 26 percent—a dramatic reversal from February when Vance led Rubio 53 percent to 7 percent.
Vance has long been positioned as the presumed heir to President Donald Trump and his America First base, but Rubio’s momentum extends beyond New Hampshire. The Florida secretary of state has narrowed the gap in national surveys and key early-voting primary states, fueled by his elevated profile managing U.S. operations involving Venezuela and ongoing tensions with Iran.
Rubio’s ascent in 2028 polling reflects months of accumulated political capital, including a strong second-place finish behind Vance at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll. Other potential candidates tested far behind the frontrunners: Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky registered 8 percent, while former South Carolina Governor and 2024 runner-up Nikki Haley matched that figure. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida garnered 6 percent.
Trump has intensified focus on both men, declaring Rubio would rank as “the greatest secretary of state in history” while simultaneously floating a Vance-Rubio ticket as “unstoppable.” The president has previously stated Vance is his “most likely” heir apparent, citing the vice president’s constitutional role.
Despite the competitive dynamic, both men have downplayed rivalry, with Vance telling Fox News that Rubio is his “closest friend in the administration.” Rubio has publicly committed to supporting Vance should the vice president launch a 2028 campaign. However, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News that Trump donors backing Rubio are quietly exploring ways to elevate his political standing.
Vance has assembled a team of political advisers preparing for an expected 2028 run, while Rubio lacks a similar infrastructure given his travel commitments as secretary of state. A Republican strategist cautioned that Vance faces risks maintaining his position, warning that Trump could blame the vice president if circumstances deteriorate significantly over the next two years.
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