Fauci’s Personal Diary Reveals Lower COVID-19 Mortality Estimates Than Congressional Testimony

Personal diary entries from Dr. Anthony Fauci dating to early 2020 indicate the longtime infectious disease expert held substantially different mortality assessments for COVID-19 in private than what he conveyed during sworn testimony before lawmakers just weeks later. The 85-year-old physician, who directed the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases throughout the pandemic, faces renewed scrutiny over discrepancies between his private calculations and public statements. Fauci is scheduled to appear before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on Wednesday to address the newly disclosed personal records.

On February 8, 2020, Fauci wrote that discussions with then-CDC Director Tom Frieden led him to conclude the virus’s case fatality rate “more like 0.2-0.3 percent rather than 2.0 percent.” At that moment, Fauci documented 34,687 confirmed cases with 724 deaths, a ratio matching his lower estimate. However, during March 11, 2020 testimony before the House Oversight Committee, Fauci told lawmakers the mortality rate “over all of this when you look at all the data including China is about three percent.”

When pressed by Rep. Michael Cloud, R-Texas, to compare COVID-19 lethality to seasonal influenza, Fauci adjusted his public projection downward to approximately one percent while maintaining it remained ten times deadlier than the seasonal flu. The divergence between his February private assessment and March public statements represents a significant shift in the figures he presented to Congress under oath.

Beyond mortality estimates, Fauci’s diary reveals his preoccupation with his escalating public prominence during the crisis. He documented a May 21, 2020 Washington Post article about him as “very flattering” and wrote that his “national and international fame is explosive and really unimaginable.” Later entries tracked his coverage across major publications and noted his developing relationship with President Donald Trump during the initial outbreak response period.

Fauci led the U.S. pandemic response during Trump’s first term and continued in the role under President Joe Biden before retiring in 2022. He currently serves as a distinguished professor at Georgetown University’s school of medicine. Fox News Digital requested comment from Georgetown University and Fauci’s office but received no response by publication time.