Six Months Into Iran Conflict, Economic Gains Flow Unevenly Across Wall Street and Main Street

Dire forecasts of economic collapse when U.S. and Israeli forces attacked Iran on February 28 have not materialized six months later, despite widespread global economic strain. While oil prices spiked and markets tumbled in the conflict’s opening weeks, broader financial catastrophe has been averted. “The global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist with Cerity Partners.

Stock market investors who resisted panic have emerged as major beneficiaries of the conflict. After initial turmoil sent the Dow and Nasdaq into correction territory and caused the S&P 500 its worst month since 2022, markets reversed course dramatically in late March. The Dow has gained nearly 19 percent, the S&P is up almost 22 percent and the Nasdaq has surged 27 percent, putting all three on track for their fourth consecutive year of gains if momentum continues.

The International Monetary Fund noted in July that the economy faced “two major forces, pushing in opposite directions,” with the war constraining growth even as enthusiasm for artificial intelligence offset those drags. Wall Street has largely shrugged off the conflict’s impact while Main Street consumers have absorbed rising costs for fuel, food and travel.

Oil remains the conflict’s most visible economic consequence, with tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted. Brent crude climbed from roughly $72 per barrel before the war to nearly $120, though prices have retreated to levels still 20 percent above prewar levels. The ripple effects touch everything from basic goods to transportation costs.

Airlines have been hit particularly hard, with jet fuel expected to average 70 percent higher costs than 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Carriers have responded by raising ticket prices, implementing fuel surcharges and baggage fees, reducing flights and shelving route expansions. Lufthansa Group cut 20,000 short-haul flights while Spirit Airlines, long troubled, ceased operations entirely.

“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” said Brett House, a Columbia University economist, citing reduced airline competition and consumer choice.

The energy crisis has accelerated global investment in clean power alternatives. Electric vehicle sales have reached record levels in several regions, with Singapore reporting 110 percent year-over-year growth, New Zealand at 180 percent and Colombia at 300 percent. Worldwide, EVs are projected to capture 29 percent of total vehicle sales in 2026, up from 25 percent the prior year.

Countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil have launched aggressive clean energy initiatives. Southeast Asian nations have expanded renewable energy deployment and explored nuclear power options, while African countries have accelerated solar panel installations and domestic refining capacity. Scott Lehmann, a supply chain expert at Sphera, identified 26 countries and regions announcing clean energy measures in response to the conflict.

The war has created severe hardship for the world’s poorest populations. As the Persian Gulf region supplies not only oil but also critical fertilizer, soaring fertilizer prices have devastated agricultural communities. Prices peaked in April at 44 percent above prewar levels, prompting farmers to reduce applications in ways that jeopardize future soil health and crop yields.

The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that tens of millions face potential hunger as fertilizer exports have been disrupted. Acting executive director Carl Skau testified this week that higher transportation costs have hampered humanitarian operations across Asia and Africa. “An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” Skau said.

President Donald Trump’s family businesses and investment holdings have profited substantially from the conflict despite its broader economic costs. Military contractor Powerus, being taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., secured an Air Force contract valued as much as $90 million for drone interceptors. Don Jr.’s private equity firm, 1789 Capital Management, holds stakes in multiple defense contractors benefiting from the war.

Those companies include Anduril, which won U.S. approval for up to $2 billion in drone interceptor sales to Kuwait, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, providing satellite services for U.S. drone operations against Iran. Rocket maker Firehawk Defense won Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads replenishing U.S. military supplies. A spokeswoman for 1789 Capital denied any “nefarious connection” regarding Don Jr.’s involvement in investment decisions.

Trump’s personal investment portfolio, managed by outside advisors, has accumulated shares in major military suppliers including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman. Democrats released a report this week indicating Trump’s oil and gas holdings have increased by as much as $15.5 million. A White House spokeswoman denied any conflicts of interest, stating Trump “only acts in the best interests of the American public.”

Despite financial gains, the conflict’s political impact remains uncertain. The war has proven unpopular with voters and could influence midterm election outcomes as the campaign season approaches.