AOC Leads 2028 Democratic Field in New Hampshire Poll, Surpasses Buttigieg and Harris

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the frontrunner among prospective 2028 Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, according to a new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released Wednesday. The New York progressive drew 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters, edging former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by one percentage point and substantially outpacing former Vice President Kamala Harris, who registered just 5% backing.

Ocasio-Cortez’s support jumped seven points since February’s survey, while both Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom saw their numbers decline. The results underscore the lawmaker’s expanding appeal among Democratic voters in the early primary battleground state, though she has remained noncommittal about her future political ambitions.

The congresswoman has declined to definitively rule out either a White House bid or a Senate run challenging longtime Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, who faces re-election in two years. Ocasio-Cortez has stated her overarching goal is to “change the country” when questioned about pursuing higher office.

Buttigieg, the moderate former South Bend mayor who finished second in New Hampshire’s 2020 Democratic primary, has been actively campaigning across the country for fellow Democrats as speculation mounts regarding a potential 2028 candidacy. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, noted that nearly half of self-identified socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates back Buttigieg.

Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, a retired astronaut, placed third with 9% support, followed closely by term-limited Gov. Newsom at 8%—a seven-point drop from February. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, runner-up in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries, registered 6% support and recently suggested another White House run was unlikely.

Harris’s weak showing in New Hampshire contrasts with her standing in national Democratic primary polls, where name recognition continues to play an outsized role in early-stage surveying. All other potential candidates tested registered 2% or fewer.

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws panel is expected to unveil the 2028 nominating calendar Friday, with the full committee voting on the schedule at its summer meeting in Austin next month. New Hampshire, which held the first-in-the-nation primary for over a century, lost its lead-off position after Democrats restructured their calendar for 2024.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads the 2028 New Hampshire GOP primary field with 36% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Trump’s 2024 runner-up, each received 8%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who sought the Republican nomination in 2024, garnered 6%.