Florida Primary Elections Test Trump’s Influence and Democratic Viability in Swing State

Floridians cast ballots Tuesday in competitive primary elections for governor and congressional seats, with contests that will shape the state’s political landscape heading into November. The primary races offer early indicators of President Donald Trump’s continued sway over Republican voters in his adopted home state, while simultaneously testing whether Democrats can reverse years of electoral losses in a state that has shifted significantly rightward.

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is pursuing the Republican gubernatorial nomination with backing from Trump, competing against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and political newcomer James Fishback. If successful, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor, though his campaign emphasizes conservative policy positions rather than historical significance. He has focused his message on tax cuts, insurance regulation reform, and healthcare cost transparency.

The Democratic gubernatorial field is led by David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties last year. Jolly’s candidacy tests whether a party-switcher can succeed in Florida, where Democrats nominated former GOP Gov. Charlie Crist in 2022 only to see him lose by nearly 20 percentage points to Ron DeSantis. Gov. DeSantis remains barred from seeking a third consecutive term.

Two Democrats are competing for their party’s nomination in a special Senate election to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term following his appointment as Trump’s secretary of state. Progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon faces retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official whose 2019 impeachment testimony drew Trump’s ire. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, a DeSantis appointee holding the seat temporarily, is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement.

U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz confronts her most challenging primary yet in a redrawn congressional district that is now plurality Black. Running for her 12th term, the white lawmaker must convince voters she represents the district adequately despite recent changes that removed her hometown of Weston. Four Black primary opponents, including former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, argue the seat requires Black representation.

Cherfilus-McCormick is attempting a political comeback despite facing a pending federal indictment accusing her of stealing $5 million in federal disaster aid. She has pleaded not guilty and disputes alleged violations of House ethics rules. Her candidacy highlights the complex nature of the Democratic field in a historically diverse South Florida district.

Republican Rep. Cory Mills faces three primary opponents in Florida’s 7th Congressional District while denying domestic violence allegations. Gov. DeSantis has explicitly declined to endorse Mills, withdrawing Republican establishment support as the congressman seeks a third term.

Primary turnout patterns will offer significant clues about November’s prospects. Republicans now outnumber Democrats among registered voters in Florida—a recent demographic shift that places pressure on the GOP to substantially exceed Democratic turnout. Conversely, a closer turnout differential could bolster Democratic optimism, mirroring patterns observed in other states this election cycle.

Miami-Dade County will receive particular scrutiny as a bellwether for shifting voter preferences. Trump lost the county to Hillary Clinton by 30 percentage points in 2016, narrowed the gap to 7 points in 2020, and won it by more than 11 points in 2024. The county’s transformation reflects broader demographic and political realignments reshaping Florida’s electoral map.