Primary Elections Tuesday Shape Midterm Landscape Across Florida, Alaska, Wyoming and California

A series of primary elections across four states on Tuesday will provide crucial indicators for the midterm contests this fall, with races in Florida, Alaska, Wyoming and California expected to reveal the contours of congressional control. The contests feature Republican-engineered redistricting that has redrawn multiple districts, fresh battles between Democratic progressives and establishment figures, and several candidates shadowed by scandal or controversy.

Florida’s gubernatorial race represents a historic moment for Black political representation in the state. Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds seeks to become Florida’s first Black governor, part of a broader wave that includes Republican John James in Michigan and Lisa Demuth in Minnesota, while Democrats have fielded their own slate of Black nominees including former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, who could become the nation’s first Black woman governor if victorious in November.

Redistricting in Florida has created contentious congressional matchups, most notably pitting veteran Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz against former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in a heavily Black South Florida district. Wasserman Schultz, seeking her 12th term and a former national party chair, has drawn criticism for running in an area that has consistently elected Black Democrats since 1992.

The race to fill Donalds’ House seat features an unusual assortment of candidates, including two former members of Congress attempting political comebacks after departing amid scandal. Former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and former New York Rep. Chris Collins, a Trump pardon recipient convicted of insider trading, are among those vying for the seat. The field also includes Trump-endorsed candidate Catalina Lauf, who previously ran unsuccessfully in Illinois twice, and John Strand, who served prison time for his role in the January 6 Capitol assault.

A special election in Florida to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio’s Senate term pits progressive state lawmaker Angie Nixon against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official who testified against Trump during his 2019 impeachment trial. The winner will likely face interim Sen. Ashley Moody, the Republican appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to the seat.

Alaska’s Senate race has attracted national attention with an unusual complication: two candidates named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot. Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Trump ally seeking a third term, faces another candidate listed as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.,” a retired teacher whom Republicans contend is a sham candidate designed to create confusion. Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, is also running and could become the first Alaska Native senator if elected to the full term in November.

Wyoming will hold elections for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House simultaneously for the first time in more than three decades, with Republican candidates heavily favored in a state where GOP registration outpaces Democratic by 7-to-1. Rep. Harriet Hageman, who gained prominence after defeating Liz Cheney in 2022, is running to replace retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, while nine Republicans compete for the House seat Hageman is vacating.

In California’s Bay Area, Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez advanced from a special primary to replace U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations. Pro-Israel lobbying groups have spent more than $4 million in the race, continuing a trend seen in other Democratic primaries this election cycle.