Alaska Primary Tuesday Sets Stage for Competitive Senate Race Likely to Influence Chamber Control

Alaskans will head to the polls Tuesday to select nominees for a hotly contested U.S. Senate race widely viewed as crucial to determining partisan control of the chamber following the 2026 midterm elections. The primary will feature substantial candidate fields competing for gubernatorial, congressional, and state legislative positions, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election ballot regardless of party.

The marquee matchup pits Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, competing among 16 total candidates for Senate. Sullivan first won the seat in 2014, defeating Democrat Mark Begich 48 percent to 46 percent, and secured reelection in 2020 with 54 percent of the vote and a 13-point advantage. Peltola captured a 2022 special election to succeed Republican Don Young, who passed away following nearly five decades in Congress, then won a full term that same year before losing her 2024 reelection bid to Republican Nick Begich, nephew of the former senator.

Campaign fundraising shows Peltola leading with approximately $18.5 million raised compared to Sullivan’s roughly $11.7 million. As of late July, Sullivan retained about $7.3 million in his campaign account versus Peltola’s approximately $4.6 million. A third Senate candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a former teacher sharing the incumbent’s name, has reported minimal fundraising and became the subject of unsuccessful Republican efforts to remove him from the ballot on grounds of voter confusion.

In the House race, incumbent Nick Begich seeks a second term against commercial fisherman Bill Hill, an independent who has won endorsements from union organizations and Anchorage pastor Matt Schultz, the leading Democrat in the contest before suspending his campaign. Begich has raised about $5.5 million compared to Hill’s approximately $1.3 million, providing a substantial financial advantage.

The gubernatorial primary features 17 candidates vying to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Former Gov. Bill Walker is running as an independent, while Republican contenders include former state senators Click Bishop, Shelley Hughes, and Lesil McGuire, as well as former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former state Attorney General Treg Taylor. Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins round out the field.

Alaska’s election system requires ranked choice voting for general elections following voter approval in 2020. Polls will close at 8 p.m. local time Tuesday, with results expected to begin arriving around midnight Eastern Time. Approximately 602,000 voters were registered as of August 3, with roughly 380,000 classified as undeclared or nonpartisan.

Voters will also decide a statewide ballot measure imposing contribution limits on state and local political campaigns, following a 2021 federal court ruling that struck down previous restrictions on individual candidate donations. The AP will declare winners only when mathematical scenarios eliminate any possibility of a trailing candidate closing the gap.